How to Beat the Bookies
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But how do you identify value bets? It starts with familiarizing yourself with betting terminology. You need to understand how bookmakers set their odds. Bookmakers set their odds including a number of key elements, including the team's previous results, their mood, the head-to-head record, and any injuries.
The key to making informed betting decisions is to look for situations where the bookmakers have misjudged the true probability. This can happen for a variety of reasons, including lack of information, bias, or simply a misjudgment.
For example, if a team has been losing their last few games, but their star player is fit again, they may potentially have a stronger bet than their current odds suggest.
One way to identify value bets is to use a tool called the required odds. This is the probability that the bookmaker's odds assumes that an event will happen. To determine the required odds, you add the required probabilitys by the result of taking the reciprocal. For example, if the odds of a team winning are 6/4, the required odds is the probability that is implied by the odds being 6|59|62)%.
Now, let's say you estimate that the actual probability of the team winning is 65%. This means that the team is actually a value bet, since the team's true probability of winning is above the bookmaker's implied probability. By recognizing these opportunities of situations, you can increase your chances of winning.

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